Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena — Bonn Round of 32
Houkes M.
Max Houkes faces Roberto Carballes Baena in the Bonn round of 32 on clay. Roberto Carballes Baena holds the paper edge — ranked #177, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Carballes Baena R. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Max Houkes comes in with 8 days of rest and 65 games in 14d, vs Roberto Carballes Baena's 4 and 34.
- Surface form: Both 4 of 8 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadHoukes M.: 8 days rest · 3 matches (14d) · Carballes Baena R.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.