Arda Azkara vs Yanki ErelSamsun Round of 32

Samsun · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#811ATP
1308ELO
1293Hard ELO
23 yrs
Last 10
LLWLLWWLWL
Sets
Monday, 27 July 2026 ·
hard
#299ATP
25 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWWWW
Azkara A.
vs
Erel Y.

Arda Azkara faces Yanki Erel in the Samsun round of 32 on hard. Yanki Erel holds the paper edge — ranked #299.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 18:50 UTC
Azkara A.30%
Erel Y.70%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Erel Y. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
6.2
Even matchUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.04 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.06 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

1 vs 7 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
43%
63%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
50%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Clear edge
49%
62%
Return points won·Slight edge
29%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
73%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.0
2.7
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.0
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (1 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Azkara A.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Erel Y.

Erel Y.serving84% hold

wins 65% of points on serve vs Azkara A.

Serve advantage — Erel Y.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. Small sample — read as indicative. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
99
57

Azkara A.: 13 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Erel Y.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 80 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw