Yuliia Starodubtseva vs Sloane Stephens — Memphis Round of 32

Memphis · WTA · Round of 32
Yuliia Starodubtseva
UKR8
Yuliia Starodubtseva
#58WTA
1759ELO
1668Hard ELO
26 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLWWLWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
hard
Sloane Stephens
USAWC
Sloane Stephens
#313WTA
1683ELO
1630Hard ELO
33 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWLLLW
Starodubtseva Y.
vs
Stephens S.

Yuliia Starodubtseva faces Sloane Stephens in the Memphis round of 32 on hard. Yuliia Starodubtseva holds the paper edge — ranked #58, a roughly 40-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Starodubtseva Y.58%
Stephens S.42%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Starodubtseva Y. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
1 common opponents · Starodubtseva Y. 1–0 · Stephens S. 0–2 · small sample
Starodubtseva Y. better · same surface, 0 days apart▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Starodubtseva Y.
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
Stephens S.
5.3
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+38 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1630
6.0Overall Elo 1759
ELO gap
4.0Overall Elo 1682
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.85 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.15 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

29 vs 14 matches

Statistics

This season
Starodubtseva Y.Stephens S.
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
49%
Service points won·Even
60%
57%
Return points won·Slight edge
46%
37%
Break points saved·Even
61%
59%
Aces / match·Even
2.1
1.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.8
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Starodubtseva Y.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Stephens S.

Stephens S.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Starodubtseva Y.

Serve advantage — Starodubtseva Y.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Starodubtseva Y.Stephens S.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
75
48
Break points saved·Dominant
89
15
Break points won·Even
95
91
Deciding sets·Slight edge
66
55
Tiebreaks·Even
76
75

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Conditions

Weather forecast
31°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 63%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw