Marko Topo vs Leonardo Rossi — Bonn Qualifying Semi-final

Bonn · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
GER5
Marko Topo
#351ATP
1463ELO
1399Clay ELO
22 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLWLWLL
—
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 4th on
ITA
Leonardo Rossi
#609ATP
23 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWWLWLW
Topo M.
vs
Rossi L.

Marko Topo faces Leonardo Rossi in the Bonn qualifying semi-final on clay. Marko Topo holds the paper edge — ranked #351. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Topo M.75%
Rossi L.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Topo M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Workload contrast: Marko Topo 77 games in 14 days, Leonardo Rossi 61.
  • Surface form: Both 4 of 8 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Topo M.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Rossi L.
5.8
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.04 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.02 of last 5 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

6 matches

Statistics

This season
Topo M.Rossi L.
1st serve in·
59%
—
1st serve points won·
62%
—
2nd serve points won·
49%
—
Service points won·
57%
—
Return points won·
33%
—
Break points saved·
49%
—
Aces / match·
4.7
—
Double faults / match·
2.0
—

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Freshness

Recent load
Topo M.Rossi L.
Freshness·Even
90
89

Topo M.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d) · Rossi L.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°COvercast
Wind 18 km/hHumidity 61%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw