Maria Sara Popa vs Amarissa Kiara TothTargu Mures Qualifying Semi-final

Targu Mures · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#427WTA
1412ELO
1395Clay ELO
20 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWWLLW
1 — 0
Sets
Retired
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT 1 · 2nd on
#386WTA
1418ELO
1399Clay ELO
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWLWW
Sara Popa M.
6-3 3-1
Kiara Toth A.
Sara Popa M.
631
Kiara Toth A.
310

Maria Sara Popa advanced to the final of the Targu Mures clay court tournament, defeating Amarissa Kiara Toth in the semifinals. Toth retired during the match, trailing 6-3, 3-1. Popa converted 71% of her break points and won 62% of her first-serve points en route to the win.

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-01-12W35 Antalya 1QFclayMaria Sara Popa1-6 6-4 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
65%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
54%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
44%
Service points won·Even
55%
51%
Return points won·Even
48%
52%
Break points saved·Even
53%
54%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.3
0.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
5.6
3.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Sara Popa M.41%
Kiara Toth A.59%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kiara Toth A. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.9Clay Elo 1395
Surface ELO
5.1+4 Clay Elo edge
4.9Overall Elo 1412
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1418
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
5.05 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.15 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
99
88

Sara Popa M.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Kiara Toth A.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
24°CPartly cloudy
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 46%

Draw