Adrian Oetzbach vs Mika Petkovic — Bonn Qualifying Semi-final

Bonn · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
GER
Adrian Oetzbach
#651ATP
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWWWWL
—
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
clay
GER10
Mika Petkovic
#434ATP
19 yrs
Last 10
LWWLWWLWWW
Oetzbach A.
vs
Petkovic M.

Adrian Oetzbach faces Mika Petkovic in the Bonn qualifying semi-final on clay. Mika Petkovic holds the paper edge — ranked #434. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC
Oetzbach A.38%
Petkovic M.62%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Petkovic M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Surface form: Adrian Oetzbach 8 of 10, Mika Petkovic 7 of 10 on clay recently — Adrian Oetzbach the sharper of late.
  • Fatigue load: Adrian Oetzbach carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Oetzbach A.
4.2
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Petkovic M.
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.64 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.57 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

5 vs 4 matches

Statistics

This season
Oetzbach A.Petkovic M.
1st serve in·Even
65%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
64%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
44%
52%
Service points won·Even
57%
60%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
42%
55%
Aces / match·Even
2.8
2.8
Double faults / match·Even
2.8
3.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (5 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Oetzbach A.serving65% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Petkovic M.

Petkovic M.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Oetzbach A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Oetzbach A.Petkovic M.
Freshness·
—
76

Petkovic M.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw