Hayu Kinoshita vs Kyoka Okamura — Vancouver Round of 32
Kinoshita H.Hayu Kinoshita faces Kyoka Okamura in the Vancouver round of 32 on hard. Hayu Kinoshita is the paper favourite — ranked #220, a roughly 140-point hard Elo advantage — but Kyoka Okamura has won both their previous meetings.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Kinoshita H. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Hayu Kinoshita comes in with 18 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Kyoka Okamura's 8 and 34.
- Head-to-head: Kyoka Okamura leads the head-to-head 2–0. Last met at W100 Tokyo 1 2024.
- Surface form: Hayu Kinoshita 2 of 6, Kyoka Okamura 0 of 6 on hard recently — Hayu Kinoshita the sharper of late.
Common opponents
Last 12 monthsUmpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (36 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadKinoshita H.: 18 days rest · Okamura K.: 8 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–2| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-04-23 | W100 Tokyo 1 | Q16 | hard | Kyoka Okamura | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2023-04-13 | W25 Osaka | R16 | hard | Kyoka Okamura | 3-6 6-0 6-3 |