Renata Zarazua vs Mccartney KesslerMemphis Round of 32

Memphis · WTA · Round of 32
#85WTA
1663ELO
1639Hard ELO
28 yrs · 160 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLLWLWW
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
hard
#46WTA
1808ELO
1785Hard ELO
$742kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
27 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWLLLWL
Zarazua R.
vs
Kessler M.

Renata Zarazua faces Mccartney Kessler in the Memphis round of 32 on hard. Mccartney Kessler holds the paper edge — ranked #46, leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Zarazua R.36%
Kessler M.64%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kessler M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
5 common opponents · Zarazua R. 1–4 · Kessler M. 1–5
Both lost · same surface, 3 days apart
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.7
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.2Hard Elo 1639
Surface ELO
6.8+146 Hard Elo edge
3.2Overall Elo 1663
ELO gap
6.8Overall Elo 1808
5.0First meeting on hard
H2H
5.0First meeting on hard
3.23 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.25 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

31 vs 18 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
74%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
58%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
50%
Service points won·Even
56%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
53%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
0.5
1.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.7
3.4

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 18). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Zarazua R.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Kessler M.

Kessler M.serving70% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Zarazua R.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
14
84
Break points saved·Dominant
3
91
Break points won·Clear edge
78
95
Deciding sets·Dominant
13
94
Tiebreaks·
58

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Conditions

Weather forecast
31°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 63%

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2026-05-16StrasbourgSFclayMccartney Kessler7-5 6-2

Draw