Jay Dylan Hara Friend vs Hiroki MoriyaVancouver Qualifying Semi-final

Vancouver · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#380ATP
1503ELO
1480Hard ELO
22 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWWWWLWW
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 2 · 1st on
#512ATP
1353ELO
1321Hard ELO
35 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLWLWLL
Dylan Hara Friend J.
vs
Moriya H.

Jay Dylan Hara Friend faces Hiroki Moriya in the Vancouver qualifying semi-final on hard. Jay Dylan Hara Friend holds the paper edge — ranked #380, a roughly 160-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Dylan Hara Friend J.73%
Moriya H.27%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Dylan Hara Friend J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.6
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
7.0+159 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.0Hard Elo 1321
6.9Overall Elo 1503
ELO gap
3.1Overall Elo 1353
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
2.02 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

7 vs 27 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
58%
1st serve points won·Even
70%
67%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
63%
61%
Return points won·Even
38%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
57%
Aces / match·Clear edge
5.0
2.1
Double faults / match·Even
3.0
3.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Dylan Hara Friend J.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Moriya H.

Moriya H.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Dylan Hara Friend J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
90
87

Dylan Hara Friend J.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 19 games (7d) · Moriya H.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 22 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
16°CRain
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 93%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw