Sergey Fomin vs Giuseppe La Vela — Bonn Qualifying Semi-final

Bonn · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
Sergey Fomin
UZB4
Sergey Fomin
#302ATP
1422ELO
1414Clay ELO
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLLWWLL
—
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
clay
ITA
Giuseppe La Vela
#498ATP
25 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWLWLWL
Fomin S.
vs
La Vela G.

Sergey Fomin faces Giuseppe La Vela in the Bonn qualifying semi-final on clay. Sergey Fomin holds the paper edge — ranked #302. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC
Fomin S.68%
La Vela G.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Fomin S. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Fatigue load: Sergey Fomin carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
  • Surface form: Both 2 of 8 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Fomin S.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
La Vela G.
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.54 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.03 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
6.0Hard → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 7 matches

Statistics

This season
Fomin S.La Vela G.
1st serve in·Even
62%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
63%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
52%
Service points won·Even
61%
59%
Return points won·Even
38%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
52%
45%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
2.3
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.0
2.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 7). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Fomin S.serving72% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs La Vela G.

La Vela G.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Fomin S.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Fomin S.La Vela G.
Freshness·
86
—

Fomin S.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°COvercast
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 43%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw