Francesca Jones vs Fiona Ferro — Palermo Final
Palermo · CHALLENGER · Final
—
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
clay
Jones F.vs
Ferro F.
Francesca Jones faces Fiona Ferro in the Palermo final on clay. Francesca Jones holds the paper edge — ranked #113, a roughly 20-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTCJones F.48%
Ferro F.52%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Francesca Jones 179 games in 14 days, Fiona Ferro 94.
- Under pressure: Francesca Jones has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 76 vs Fiona Ferro's 7).
- Last match: Fiona Ferro dropped just 5 games past Lucia Bronzetti.
Common opponents
Last 12 months2 common opponents · Jones F. 0–2 · Ferro F. 2–0 · small sample
Ferro F. better · same surface, 41 days apart · ⚠ lower-tier event▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchForm & Matchup
5.2+16 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO4.8Clay Elo 1605
4.5Overall Elo 1619
ELO gap5.5Overall Elo 1662
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
9.49 of last 10 on clay
Surface form6.76 of last 10 on clay
10.09-match win streak
Win streak7.04-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
17 vs 24 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Even
67%
65%
1st serve points won·Even
58%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
49%
Service points won·Even
54%
56%
Return points won·Even
45%
47%
Break points saved·Slight edge
54%
60%
Aces / match·Even
1.1
1.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.2
2.0
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 24). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonBaseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Conditions
Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
30°CMainly clear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 69%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.