Liam Draxl vs Toby Samuel — Winnipeg Final

Winnipeg · CHALLENGER · Final

CAN

Liam Draxl

#216ATP

1592ELO

1565Hard ELO

$201kYTD

$642kCAREER

24 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LLWWWWLWWL

0 — 2

Sets

Sunday, 26 July 2026 · 12:05

hard

STADIUM · 1st on

GBR2

Toby Samuel

#113ATP

1745ELO

1729Hard ELO

$217kYTD

$332kCAREER

23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed

Last 10 · pre-match

LWWWWWLLWW

Draxl L.

4-6 2-6

Samuel T.

Draxl L.

420

Samuel T.

662

Toby Samuel won the final of the Winnipeg hard-court tournament, defeating Liam Draxl 6-4, 6-2. The match was the championship contest. Samuel earned the title.

Key context

Match story: Toby Samuel dropped just 6 games past Liam Draxl.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Serve vs return

This season

Draxl L.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Samuel T.

Samuel T.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Draxl L.

Serve advantage — Samuel T.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Serve & return on hard

Draxl L.Samuel T.

Serve

—

Return

—

Per-surface Serve / Return Rating (0–100, percentile within the hard field, opponent-adjusted over 52 weeks). About

Statistics

This season

Draxl L.Samuel T.

1st serve in·Even

64%

67%

1st serve points won·Even

68%

69%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

47%

54%

Service points won·Even

60%

64%

Return points won·Even

40%

41%

Break points saved·Slight edge

56%

66%

Aces / match·Slight edge

4.6

3.9

Double faults / match·Clear edge

2.8

1.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 33). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC

Draxl L.43%

Samuel T.57%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Draxl L.

4.7

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Samuel T.

6.2

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

3.0Hard Elo 1565

Surface ELO

7.0+164 Hard Elo edge

3.1Overall Elo 1592

ELO gap

6.9Overall Elo 1745

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

7.67 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

10.010 of last 10 on hard

7.04-match win streak

Win streak

7.04-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

0.03 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load

Draxl L.Samuel T.

Freshness·

—

Draxl L.: 2 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Mediumbalanced pace

SlowFast

Weather

27°CPartly cloudy

Wind 9 km/hHumidity 79%

Liam Draxl vs Toby Samuel — Winnipeg Final

Key context

Head to head

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard

Statistics

Win Probability

Umpiry Score

Freshness

Conditions

Draw

Serve vs return

Serve & return on hard