Federico Bondioli vs Michael VrbenskySan Marino Qualifying Semi-final

San Marino · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#290ATP
1387ELO
1378Clay ELO
21 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWWLL
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTER COURT · 1st on
#742ATP
26 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLWWL
Bondioli F.
vs
Vrbensky M.

Federico Bondioli faces Michael Vrbensky in the San Marino qualifying semi-final on clay. Federico Bondioli holds the paper edge — ranked #290.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 00:50 UTC
Bondioli F.67%
Vrbensky M.33%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Bondioli F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.36 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
1.42 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 7
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

14 vs 14 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
66%
60%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
53%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
55%
Return points won·Even
40%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
59%
50%
Aces / match·Even
2.5
2.5
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.6
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (14 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Bondioli F.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Vrbensky M.

Vrbensky M.serving56% hold

wins 52% of points on serve vs Bondioli F.

Serve advantage — Bondioli F.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
78
85

Bondioli F.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 32 games (7d) · Vrbensky M.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw