Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida vs Louis Wessels — Bonn Qualifying Semi-final

Bonn · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
BRA3
Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida
#295ATP
1412ELO
1404Clay ELO
25 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWWWLW
—
Sets
Sunday, 26 July 2026 ·
clay
Louis Wessels
GER
Louis Wessels
#539ATP
27 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWWWW
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
vs
Wessels L.

Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida faces Louis Wessels in the Bonn qualifying semi-final on clay. Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida holds the paper edge — ranked #295. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC
Pucinelli De Almeida M.64%
Wessels L.36%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Pucinelli De Almeida M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Freshness: Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida comes in with 15 days of rest and 0 games in 14d, vs Louis Wessels's 4 and 133.
  • Under pressure: In the tight moments, Louis Wessels has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 34 vs 5).
  • Surface form: Both 8 of 10 on clay recently — court-specific quality nearly identical despite the ranking gap.

Common opponents

Last 12 months
No common opponents in the last 12 months.
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Pucinelli De Almeida M.
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Wessels L.
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
7.88 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

6 vs 5 matches

Statistics

This season
Pucinelli De Almeida M.Wessels L.
1st serve in·Clear edge
58%
70%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
63%
73%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
51%
39%
Service points won·Slight edge
58%
63%
Return points won·Slight edge
48%
37%
Break points saved·Slight edge
55%
50%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.2
3.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.3
2.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (6 vs 5). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Pucinelli De Almeida M.serving69% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Wessels L.

Wessels L.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Pucinelli De Almeida M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Pucinelli De Almeida M.Wessels L.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
5
34
Break points saved·Dominant
36
71
Break points won·Dominant
43
4
Deciding sets·Dominant
11
58
Tiebreaks·Dominant
1
53

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Pucinelli De Almeida M.Wessels L.
Freshness·Clear edge
100
76

Pucinelli De Almeida M.: 15 days rest · Wessels L.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 47 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
24°COvercast
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 56%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw