Polina Kudermetova vs Mei Yamaguchi — Washington Qualifying Semi-final
Washington · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
—
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 2nd on
Kudermetova P.vs
Yamaguchi M.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 08:50 UTCKudermetova P.71%
Yamaguchi M.29%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Clear favourite · Kudermetova P. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Common opponents
Last 12 months1 common opponents · Kudermetova P. 0–1 · Yamaguchi M. 0–1 · small sample
Both lost · same surface▾
Includes tour-level, 125s, qualifying and team events (⚑). Walkovers excluded. Describes past results in different contexts — not a prediction.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
7.8+226 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO2.2Hard Elo 1420
8.5Overall Elo 1727
ELO gap1.5Overall Elo 1448
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
5.66 of last 10 on hard
Surface form4.24 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
30 vs 26 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
66%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
61%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
46%
Service points won·Even
58%
56%
Return points won·Even
48%
44%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
62%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.5
1.7
Double faults / match·Clear edge
4.0
2.6
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonServe advantage — Kudermetova P.
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·Even
98
100
Kudermetova P.: 12 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Yamaguchi M.: 16 days rest. Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather forecast
25°CClear
Wind 5 km/hHumidity 61%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.