Francesca Jones vs Alevtina IbragimovaPalermo Semi-final

Palermo · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#113WTA
1619ELO
1621Clay ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRALE · 2nd on
#236WTA
1508ELO
1472Clay ELO
21 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWLWWWLLW
Jones F.
6-3 6-4
Ibragimova A.
Jones F.
662
Ibragimova A.
340

Francesca Jones defeated Alevtina Ibragimova 6-3, 6-4 in the semifinals of the Palermo tournament. Jones did not hit an ace but made two double faults, while Ibragimova hit one ace and made four double faults. Jones converted all five of her break points and won five service breaks to Ibragimova's two.

Around the match

  • I believe I'm worth more in the rankings, but injuries have held me back. My dream is still to break into the top 50 in the world.

    Jones F.palermoladiesopen.it· 2026-07-25
  • I'm going through a good period and I need to keep working. Anastasia Myskina is my coach and won her first WTA title here. I hope one day to follow in her footsteps.

    Ibragimova A.palermoladiesopen.it· 2026-07-25

Quotes belong to their sources, linked above.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
70%
1st serve points won·Even
58%
58%
2nd serve points won·Even
47%
44%
Service points won·Even
54%
54%
Return points won·Even
45%
47%
Break points saved·Even
54%
56%
Aces / match·Even
1.1
1.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 21). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Jones F.59%
Ibragimova A.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Jones F. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.9+149 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.1Clay Elo 1472
6.4Overall Elo 1619
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1508
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
9.39 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.67 of last 10 on clay
10.08-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
52
51

Jones F.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 96 games (7d) · Ibragimova A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 95 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
30°CMainly clear
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 52%

Draw