Nuria Brancaccio vs Mia RisticW75 Cordenons Final

W75 Cordenons · ITF · Final
#189WTA
1494ELO
1486Clay ELO
26 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWWWLL
0 — 2
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
clay
#261WTA
1504ELO
1479Clay ELO
20 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWLWLWLW
Brancaccio N.
3-6 3-6
Ristic M.
Brancaccio N.
330
Ristic M.
662

Mia Ristic defeated Nuria Brancaccio in the final of the W75 Cordenons clay court tournament, winning 6-3, 6-3. Ristic did not hit an ace but converted 60% of her break points, securing six service breaks to Brancaccio's three. Brancaccio hit three aces and committed one double fault in the match.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-07-30W75 Cordenons 1R16clayNuria Brancaccio6-1 6-2

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
74%
68%
1st serve points won·Even
60%
61%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
43%
54%
Service points won·Even
55%
58%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Even
54%
51%
Aces / match·Even
1.3
1.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.0
0.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
12
19
Break points saved·Slight edge
30
35
Break points won·Dominant
95
54
Deciding sets·Dominant
16
45
Tiebreaks·
12

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC
Brancaccio N.44%
Ristic M.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.1+8 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.9Clay Elo 1479
4.9Overall Elo 1494
ELO gap
5.1Overall Elo 1504
6.4Leads 2–1 on clay
H2H
3.6Trails 1–2 on clay
5.35 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.05 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
84
94

Brancaccio N.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d) · Ristic M.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
28°CClear
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 39%

Draw