Daria Kasatkina vs Mariam BolkvadzeWashington Qualifying Semi-final

Washington · WTA · Qualifying Semi-final
#61WTA
1795ELO
1757Hard ELO
29 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLLLLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Saturday, 25 July 2026 ·
hard
JOHN HARRIS · 3rd on
#415WTA
1479ELO
1469Hard ELO
28 yrs · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLLLLW
Kasatkina D.
6-7 6-4 6-0
Bolkvadze M.
Kasatkina D.
63662
Bolkvadze M.
77401

Daria Kasatkina defeated Mariam Bolkvadze in the semifinals of the Washington tournament, advancing with a 6-7, 6-4, 6-0 victory. Kasatkina hit 3 aces to Bolkvadze's 0 and won 58% of her first serves to Bolkvadze's 45%. Kasatkina converted 44% of break points and broke Bolkvadze's serve 11 times, compared to 7 breaks for Bolkvadze.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
70%
69%
1st serve points won·Even
58%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
41%
38%
Service points won·Even
53%
53%
Return points won·Even
51%
50%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
44%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.8
0.7
Double faults / match·Slight edge
6.4
7.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
49
50
Break points saved·Slight edge
10
17
Break points won·Slight edge
99
89
Deciding sets·Even
89
93
Tiebreaks·
9

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC
Kasatkina D.63%
Bolkvadze M.37%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Kasatkina D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.6+288 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.4Hard Elo 1469
9.0Overall Elo 1795
ELO gap
1.0Overall Elo 1479
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.54 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.96 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
78
78

Kasatkina D.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d) · Bolkvadze M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 29 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Fastbig serves, short points
SlowFast
Weather
29°CMainly clear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw