Matias Soto vs Felipe Meligeni AlvesM25 Sao Paulo Quarter-final

M25 Sao Paulo · ITF · Quarter-final
#262ATP
1421ELO
1412Clay ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWWWWL
0 — 2
Sets
Friday, 24 July 2026 ·
clay
#567ATP
1477ELO
1469Clay ELO
28 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWWW
Soto M.
3-6 0-6
Meligeni Alves F.
Soto M.
300
Meligeni Alves F.
662

Felipe Meligeni Alves defeated Matias Soto 6-3, 6-0 in the quarterfinals of the M25 Sao Paulo tournament on clay. Meligeni Alves converted 62% of his break points and won 72% of his first-serve points to secure the win. He served 3 aces and did not commit a double fault, while Soto served 2 aces and committed 2 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
55%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
50%
55%
Service points won·Even
62%
60%
Return points won·Even
41%
42%
Break points saved·Slight edge
58%
63%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.8
1.5
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.6
1.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Even
34
30
Break points saved·Dominant
51
78
Break points won·Slight edge
14
3
Deciding sets·Dominant
69
39
Tiebreaks·Dominant
56
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Soto M.26%
Meligeni Alves F.74%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Meligeni Alves F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.6
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
4.3Clay Elo 1412
Surface ELO
5.7+57 Clay Elo edge
4.3Overall Elo 1421
ELO gap
5.7Overall Elo 1477
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.58 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
88
64

Soto M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Meligeni Alves F.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 60 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
17°CDrizzle
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 81%

Draw