Matias Soto vs Rafael TosettoM25 Sao Paulo Round of 16

M25 Sao Paulo · ITF · Round of 16
#262ATP
1421ELO
1412Clay ELO
27 yrs · 170 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWLWWWWL
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
clay
#1014ATP
27 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLLWLWW
Soto M.
6-3 6-4
Tosetto R.
Soto M.
662
Tosetto R.
340

Matias Soto defeated Rafael Tosetto 6-3, 6-4 in the Round of 16 at the M25 Sao Paulo tournament on clay. Soto served six aces and won 77 percent of his first-serve points, while converting 36 percent of his break points to secure four service breaks. Tosetto converted 67 percent of his break points, but was limited by zero aces and only two service breaks.

Key context

  • Match story: Matias Soto closed it out in two sets, 6–3 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
55%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
49%
54%
Service points won·Even
61%
59%
Return points won·Even
41%
40%
Break points saved·Slight edge
57%
51%
Aces / match·Clear edge
4.6
2.3
Double faults / match·Even
3.6
3.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 11). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 13:50 UTC
Soto M.79%
Tosetto R.21%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Soto M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.2
Clear underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.26 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
4.95 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
88

Soto M.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Weather
23°COvercast
Wind 10 km/hHumidity 49%

Draw