Chase Ferguson vs Derek Pham — M15 Brisbane Round of 16

M15 Brisbane · ITF · Round of 16
AUS8
Chase Ferguson
#650ATP
27 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWLWWLWWL
2 — 1
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
hard
AUS
Derek Pham
#1205ATP
22 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLWWWW
Ferguson C.
6-4 5-7 7-6
Pham D.
Ferguson C.
65772
Pham D.
47651

Chase Ferguson defeated Derek Pham 6-4, 5-7, 7-6 in the Round of 16 at the M15 Brisbane tournament. The match saw both players achieve four service breaks, with Ferguson converting 40% of his break points and Pham converting 36%. Ferguson hit four aces and two double faults, while Pham had five aces and one double fault.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Ferguson C.Pham D.
1st serve in·
71%
—
1st serve points won·
67%
—
2nd serve points won·
52%
—
Service points won·
62%
—
Return points won·
38%
—
Break points saved·
64%
—
Aces / match·
2.6
—
Double faults / match·
1.0
—

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window. ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 20:50 UTC
Ferguson C.74%
Pham D.26%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Ferguson C. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Ferguson C.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Pham D.
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.43 of last 6 on hard
Surface form
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Conditions

Weather
17°CMainly clear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 84%

Draw