Francesca Jones vs Miriam Bianca BulgaruPalermo Round of 16

Palermo · CHALLENGER · Round of 16
#113WTA
1619ELO
1621Clay ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWWWWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
clay
CENTRALE · 2nd on
#246WTA
1366ELO
1330Clay ELO
27 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWLLLWLL
Jones F.
6-3 6-2
Bianca Bulgaru M.
Jones F.
662
Bianca Bulgaru M.
320

Francesca Jones defeated Miriam Bianca Bulgaru 6-3, 6-2 in the Round of 16 at the Palermo tournament on clay. Jones hit one ace and five double faults, winning 60 percent of her first serves and converting 55 percent of her break points. Bulgaru hit three aces and two double faults, winning 47 percent of her first serves and converting 60 percent of her break points.

Key context

Head to head

10
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-05-08W75 Prague 2R16clayFrancesca Jones7-5 6-1

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
64%
1st serve points won·Even
58%
54%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
41%
Service points won·Slight edge
54%
49%
Return points won·Even
45%
44%
Break points saved·Clear edge
54%
38%
Aces / match·Even
1.1
0.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.2
3.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (17 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
76
20
Break points saved·Dominant
80
25
Break points won·Dominant
96
60
Deciding sets·Slight edge
70
59
Tiebreaks·Dominant
89
29

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Jones F.77%
Bianca Bulgaru M.23%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Jones F. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model (out-of-sample validated). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
7.9
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.6+291 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.4Clay Elo 1330
8.2Overall Elo 1619
ELO gap
1.8Overall Elo 1366
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
8.58 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.63 of last 10 on clay
9.06-match win streak
Win streak
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
52
81

Jones F.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 96 games (7d) · Bianca Bulgaru M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 41 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
30°CClear
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 66%

Draw