Jaime Faria vs Gonzalo Bueno — Estoril Round of 16

Estoril · ATP · Round of 16
POR
Jaime Faria
#88ATP
1735ELO
1706Clay ELO
$531kYTD
$1.4MCAREER
22 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WLWLWWWWLW
—
Sets
Thursday, 23 July 2026 ·
clay
PER
Gonzalo Bueno
#180ATP
1491ELO
1469Clay ELO
$136kYTD
$352kCAREER
22 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLLLLWWL
Faria J.
vs
Bueno G.

Jaime Faria faces Gonzalo Bueno in the Estoril round of 16 on clay. Jaime Faria is the paper favourite — ranked #88, a roughly 240-point clay Elo advantage — but Gonzalo Bueno rides a 3-match win streak.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Faria J.82%
Bueno G.18%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Faria J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Faria J.
7.3
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Bueno G.
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
8.0+237 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
2.0Clay Elo 1469
8.1Overall Elo 1735
ELO gap
1.9Overall Elo 1491
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.97 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.75 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

42 vs 30 matches

Statistics

This season
Faria J.Bueno G.
1st serve in·Even
58%
57%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
72%
63%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
52%
47%
Service points won·Slight edge
64%
56%
Return points won·Slight edge
40%
45%
Break points saved·Even
59%
60%
Aces / match·Dominant
5.7
1.1
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.5
3.8

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (42 vs 30). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Faria J.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Bueno G.

Bueno G.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Faria J.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Faria J.Bueno G.
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
54
45
Break points saved·Dominant
76
29
Break points won·Clear edge
22
45
Deciding sets·Slight edge
81
88
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
76
68

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Faria J.Bueno G.
Freshness·Slight edge
79
68

Faria J.: 5 days rest · 2 matches, 64 games (7d) · Bueno G.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CPartly cloudy
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 68%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw