Yosuke Watanuki vs Andre Ilagan — Winnipeg Round of 32

Winnipeg · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Yosuke Watanuki
JPN
Yosuke Watanuki
#416ATP
1541ELO
1531Hard ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLLLWWWLLL
2 — 0
Sets
Tuesday, 21 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 1 · 2nd on
USA
Andre Ilagan
#210ATP
1543ELO
1518Hard ELO
25 yrs · 173 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWWLWWWW
Watanuki Y.
7-6 7-5
Ilagan A.
Watanuki Y.
7772
Ilagan A.
6350

Yosuke Watanuki defeated Andre Ilagan in the Round of 32 at the Winnipeg hard-court tournament. The match ended with a score of 7-6, 7-5 in favor of Watanuki.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Watanuki Y.Ilagan A.
1st serve in·Clear edge
52%
67%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
68%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
52%
Service points won·Even
59%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
39%
Break points saved·Clear edge
48%
67%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.6
4.2
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.0
2.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (7 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Watanuki Y.Ilagan A.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
16
37
Break points saved·Slight edge
70
76
Break points won·Clear edge
3
17
Deciding sets·Dominant
11
71
Tiebreaks·Dominant
89
14

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTC
Watanuki Y.44%
Ilagan A.56%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Watanuki Y.
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Ilagan A.
5.9
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.2+12 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.8Hard Elo 1518
5.0Overall Elo 1540
ELO gap
5.0Overall Elo 1543
7.0Leads 1–0 on hard
H2H
3.0Trails 0–1 on hard
6.16 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.26 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Watanuki Y.Ilagan A.
Freshness·
—
68

Ilagan A.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 64 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather
19°CMainly clear
Wind 19 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw