Gonzalo Bueno vs Tiago Pereira — Estoril Round of 32
Estoril · ATP · Round of 32
PERQ#176ATP
1491ELO
1469Clay ELO
$136kYTD
$352kCAREER
22 yrs · 173 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWLLLLWWLL
—
Sets
Tuesday, 21 July 2026 ·
clay
COURT CASCAIS · 1st on
Bueno G.vs
Pereira T.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 19:50 UTCBueno G.87%
Pereira T.13%
Toss-up
50–58%
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+
80%+
Strong favourite · Bueno G. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Umpiry Score
Pre-match6.8
Slight advantageUmpiry Score4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry ScoreForm & Matchup
8.4+269 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO1.6Clay Elo 1200
8.9Overall Elo 1491
ELO gap1.1Overall Elo 1179
5.0No prior meetings
H2H5.0No prior meetings
4.64 of last 10 on clay
Surface form3.13 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count0.03 three-setters in 14 days
Surface transition
6.0Hard → Clay
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts5.0Didn't play here last year
The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
30 vs 14 matches
Statistics
This season1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
63%
64%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
47%
40%
Service points won·Even
56%
55%
Return points won·Slight edge
45%
36%
Break points saved·Clear edge
60%
47%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.1
2.0
Double faults / match·Dominant
3.8
1.6
Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 14). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonBaseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks
Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadFreshness·Slight edge
64
54
Bueno G.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Pereira T.: 2 days rest · 4 matches, 123 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
23°CPartly cloudy
Wind 11 km/hHumidity 76%
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.