Katarzyna Kawa vs Paula Badosa — Hamburg Round of 32

Hamburg · WTA · Round of 32
Katarzyna Kawa
POL
Katarzyna Kawa
#142WTA
1664ELO
1662Clay ELO
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLWWWWWW
—
Sets
Tuesday, 21 July 2026 ·
clay
Paula Badosa
ESP
Paula Badosa
#115WTA
1780ELO
1684Clay ELO
28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWWWWWWWL
Kawa K.
vs
Badosa P.

Katarzyna Kawa faces Paula Badosa in the Hamburg round of 32 on clay. Paula Badosa holds the paper edge — ranked #115, a roughly 20-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 03:50 UTC
Kawa K.34%
Badosa P.66%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Badosa P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Kawa K.
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Badosa P.
7.4
Dominant favouriteUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.7Clay Elo 1662
Surface ELO
5.3+22 Clay Elo edge
3.6Overall Elo 1664
ELO gap
6.4Overall Elo 1780
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
6.06 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
9.49 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
10.09-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

24 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Kawa K.Badosa P.
1st serve in·Slight edge
62%
56%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
61%
69%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
46%
39%
Service points won·Even
55%
56%
Return points won·Even
47%
43%
Break points saved·Even
54%
53%
Aces / match·Dominant
1.2
4.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.8
7.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (24 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Kawa K.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Badosa P.serving57% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Kawa K.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Kawa K.Badosa P.
Clutch Rating·Dominant
51
87
Break points saved·Dominant
15
76
Break points won·Even
93
94
Deciding sets·Even
88
92
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
79
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Kawa K.Badosa P.
Freshness·Dominant
79
44

Kawa K.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 44 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 103 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°CClear
Wind 9 km/hHumidity 61%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw