Jan Lennard Struff vs Alexander ShevchenkoKitzbuhel Round of 32

Kitzbuhel · ATP · Round of 32
#41ATP
1694ELO
1659Clay ELO
$492kYTD
$13MCAREER
36 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWLWLWL
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
clay
#100ATP
1669ELO
1624Clay ELO
25 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLLWWW
Lennard Struff J.
vs
Shevchenko A.

Jan Lennard Struff faces Alexander Shevchenko in the Kitzbuhel round of 32 on clay. Jan Lennard Struff holds the paper edge — ranked #41, leading the head-to-head 2–0, a roughly 40-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Lennard Struff J.54%
Shevchenko A.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.8
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Surface jump clay↔grass (−0.8)
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.4+35 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.6Clay Elo 1624
5.3Overall Elo 1694
ELO gap
4.7Overall Elo 1669
5.0First meeting on clay
H2H
5.0First meeting on clay
2.22 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.97 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3.0Grass → Clay
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

18 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
60%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
73%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
51%
Service points won·Even
64%
62%
Return points won·Even
37%
36%
Break points saved·Even
61%
63%
Aces / match·Slight edge
7.6
6.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.8
1.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Lennard Struff J.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Shevchenko A.

Shevchenko A.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Lennard Struff J.

Serve advantage — Lennard Struff J.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
48
60
Break points saved·Clear edge
95
79
Break points won·Dominant
3
28
Deciding sets·Clear edge
69
90
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
84
93

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
90
64

Lennard Struff J.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d) · Shevchenko A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 71 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

20
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2024-11-04MetzR32hardJan Lennard Struff3-6 6-4 6-4
2023-01-16Australian OpenQ1hardJan Lennard Struff6-4 6-4

Draw