Amarissa Kiara Toth vs Jennifer RuggeriPalermo Round of 32

Palermo · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#386WTA
1418ELO
1399Clay ELO
23 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLWLWLWW
1 — 2
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
clay
CAMPO 2 · 2nd on
#221WTA
1577ELO
1554Clay ELO
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLLLWWWLW
Kiara Toth A.
6-3 3-6 4-6
Ruggeri J.
Kiara Toth A.
6341
Ruggeri J.
3662

Jennifer Ruggeri defeated Amarissa Kiara Toth in the Round of 32 at the Palermo tournament on clay, winning 3-6, 6-3, 6-4. Ruggeri converted 43% of her break points and secured 6 service breaks, while Toth converted 38% of her break points and secured 5 service breaks. Ruggeri had 1 ace and 10 double faults, compared to Toth's 4 aces and 6 double faults.

Key context

Head to head

01
DateTournamentRoundSurfaceWinnerScore
2025-10-18W35 Santa Margherita di Pula 11QFclayJennifer Ruggeri7-6(3) 6-0

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
66%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
54%
60%
2nd serve points won·Even
44%
48%
Service points won·Slight edge
51%
56%
Return points won·Even
52%
49%
Break points saved·Even
54%
55%
Aces / match·Even
0.6
1.0
Double faults / match·Slight edge
3.7
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (20 vs 27). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Kiara Toth A.13%
Ruggeri J.87%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Ruggeri J. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 66% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.4
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
7.0
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
3.1Clay Elo 1399
Surface ELO
6.9+155 Clay Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1418
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1577
3.0Trails 0–1 on clay
H2H
7.0Leads 1–0 on clay
6.26 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.27 of last 10 on clay
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
88
61

Kiara Toth A.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 36 games (7d) · Ruggeri J.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 87 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather
33°CClear
Wind 4 km/hHumidity 59%

Draw