Fajing Sun vs Mees Rottgering — Winnipeg Round of 32
CHN
Sun F.
Fajing Sun faces Mees Rottgering in the Winnipeg round of 32 on hard. Fajing Sun is the paper favourite — ranked #273, a roughly 20-point hard Elo advantage — but Mees Rottgering arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 7 on hard to Fajing Sun's 1.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Slight edge · Sun F. narrowly ahead
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Surface form: Fajing Sun 1 of 7, Mees Rottgering 5 of 7 on hard recently — Mees Rottgering the sharper of late.
- Fatigue load: Mees Rottgering carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (33 vs 3). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadSun F.: 5 days rest · 1 match, 17 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.