Arantxa Rus vs Chloe PaquetHamburg Qualifying Final

Hamburg · WTA · Qualifying Final
#187WTA
1511ELO
1500Clay ELO
35 yrs · 180 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLWLWWLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
clay
M2 · 2nd on
#301WTA
1479ELO
1456Clay ELO
32 yrs · 179 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWLWLWWL
Rus A.
1-6 6-4 6-4
Paquet C.
Rus A.
1662
Paquet C.
6441

Arantxa Rus won the final of the Hamburg clay court tournament, defeating Chloe Paquet 1-6, 6-4, 6-4. Rus served two aces and committed zero double faults, while Paquet served three aces and made four double faults. Rus converted 50% of her break points and won four service breaks, compared to Paquet's five service breaks and 33% break point conversion rate.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
75%
62%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
57%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
39%
43%
Service points won·Even
52%
56%
Return points won·Even
46%
42%
Break points saved·Even
51%
53%
Aces / match·Slight edge
1.2
2.6
Double faults / match·Slight edge
4.1
4.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (18 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Slight edge
0
8
Break points saved·Dominant
7
51
Break points won·Dominant
20
69
Deciding sets·Even
0
0
Tiebreaks·Dominant
0
29

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 09:50 UTC
Rus A.54%
Paquet C.46%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Toss-up · Too close to call

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
5.1
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
5.6+44 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.4Clay Elo 1456
5.4Overall Elo 1511
ELO gap
4.6Overall Elo 1479
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.25 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.77 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
64
65

Rus A.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 76 games (7d) · Paquet C.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
18°COvercast
Wind 15 km/hHumidity 60%

Draw