Rio Noguchi vs Braden Shick — Winnipeg Round of 32
Noguchi R.
Rio Noguchi faces Braden Shick in the Winnipeg round of 32 on hard. Rio Noguchi is the paper favourite — ranked #222, a roughly 150-point hard Elo advantage — but Braden Shick arrives in form, winning 3 of their last 4 on hard to Rio Noguchi's 2.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 21:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Noguchi R. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Rio Noguchi comes in with 2 days of rest and 96 games in 14d, vs Braden Shick's 11 and 48.
- Surface form: Rio Noguchi 2 of 4, Braden Shick 3 of 4 on hard recently — Braden Shick the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (29 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Freshness
Recent loadNoguchi R.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d) · Shick B.: 11 days rest · 2 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.