Alexandre Muller vs Mariano NavoneKitzbuhel Round of 32

Kitzbuhel · ATP · Round of 32
#132ATP
1665ELO
1628Clay ELO
$426kYTD
$4.3MCAREER
29 yrs · 183 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLLLLLLL
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
clay
#48ATP
1822ELO
1800Clay ELO
$722kYTD
$3.1MCAREER
25 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLLWLWWWW
Muller A.
vs
Navone M.

Alexandre Muller faces Mariano Navone in the Kitzbuhel round of 32 on clay. Mariano Navone holds the paper edge — ranked #48, a roughly 170-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Muller A.24%
Navone M.76%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Navone M. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.9Clay Elo 1628
Surface ELO
7.1+172 Clay Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1664
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1822
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
0.61 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.36 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 10
Win streak
0.0Lost last 4
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

21 vs 25 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
67%
71%
1st serve points won·Even
67%
64%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
49%
Service points won·Even
61%
59%
Return points won·Even
37%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
61%
54%
Aces / match·Clear edge
3.1
1.3
Double faults / match·Clear edge
1.7
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (21 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Muller A.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Navone M.

Navone M.serving70% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Muller A.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
71
37
Break points saved·Slight edge
89
79
Break points won·Dominant
44
91
Deciding sets·Dominant
94
1
Tiebreaks·
85

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
86
91

Muller A.: 4 days rest · 1 match, 28 games (7d) · Navone M.: 3 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw