Thiago Monteiro vs Petr Nesterov — Zug Qualifying Final

Zug · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Final
Thiago Monteiro
BRA5
Thiago Monteiro
#274ATP
1568ELO
1554Clay ELO
32 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 1
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
clay
TOPCAR COURT 2 · 2nd on
BUL8
Petr Nesterov
#301ATP
1456ELO
1410Clay ELO
23 yrs · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LLWWWWWWWW
Monteiro T.
6-3 4-6 7-5
Nesterov P.
Monteiro T.
6472
Nesterov P.
3651

Thiago Monteiro won the final of the Zug tournament on clay, defeating Petr Nesterov 6-3, 4-6, 7-5. Monteiro hit 7 aces and 3 double faults, winning 83% of his first serves and converting 38% of break points. He broke Nesterov's serve 3 times, while Nesterov broke Monteiro's serve twice.

Key context

  • Match story: Thiago Monteiro closed it out in three sets, 6–3 4–6 7–5.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
Monteiro T.Nesterov P.
1st serve in·Even
64%
65%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
71%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
53%
Service points won·Even
64%
61%
Return points won·Even
36%
40%
Break points saved·Clear edge
65%
53%
Aces / match·Even
4.4
4.8
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.0
1.1

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 16). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 10:50 UTC
Monteiro T.75%
Nesterov P.25%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Monteiro T. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Monteiro T.
5.5
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Nesterov P.
4.9
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
6.8+144 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Clay Elo 1410
6.4Overall Elo 1568
ELO gap
3.6Overall Elo 1456
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.16 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
6.87 of last 10 on clay
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Monteiro T.Nesterov P.
Freshness·Slight edge
100
94

Monteiro T.: 16 days rest · Nesterov P.: 11 days rest · 3 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
21°CMainly clear
Wind 7 km/hHumidity 47%

Draw