Shintaro Mochizuki vs Philip Sekulic — Winnipeg Round of 32

Winnipeg · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
Shintaro Mochizuki
JPN1
Shintaro Mochizuki
#115ATP
1475ELO
1425Hard ELO
$243kYTD
$1.6MCAREER
23 yrs · 175 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWWWWWLWW
—
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
hard
AUS
Philip Sekulic
#317ATP
1390ELO
1363Hard ELO
22 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLLLWWWW
Mochizuki S.
vs
Sekulic P.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 01:50 UTC
Mochizuki S.59%
Sekulic P.41%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Mochizuki S. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
Mochizuki S.
6.3
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Sekulic P.
6.0
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.8+62 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.2Hard Elo 1363
6.1Overall Elo 1475
ELO gap
3.9Overall Elo 1390
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
3.74 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.37 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
3-set count
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
7.0Grass → Hard
Surface transition
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

19 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season
Mochizuki S.Sekulic P.
1st serve in·Clear edge
52%
64%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
66%
74%
2nd serve points won·Even
45%
49%
Service points won·Slight edge
56%
65%
Return points won·Even
37%
37%
Break points saved·Even
57%
61%
Aces / match·Clear edge
2.8
4.8
Double faults / match·Dominant
6.5
3.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Mochizuki S.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Sekulic P.

Sekulic P.serving86% hold

wins 67% of points on serve vs Mochizuki S.

Serve advantage — Sekulic P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Mochizuki S.Sekulic P.
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
8
27
Break points saved·Even
78
79
Break points won·Slight edge
16
9
Deciding sets·Dominant
4
45
Tiebreaks·Clear edge
43
19

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Mochizuki S.Sekulic P.
Freshness·Clear edge
98
74

Mochizuki S.: 14 days rest · 1 match (14d) · Sekulic P.: 2 days rest · 3 matches, 54 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°COvercast
Wind 26 km/hHumidity 72%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw