Alexis Galarneau vs Pablo Llamas RuizBloomfield Hills Round of 32

Bloomfield Hills · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#158ATP
1593ELO
1548Hard ELO
$177kYTD
$837kCAREER
27 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWWLWWWLWL
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 2 · 4th on
#116ATP
1757ELO
1630Hard ELO
$268kYTD
$884kCAREER
23 yrs · 188 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLWLWWW
Galarneau A.
vs
Llamas Ruiz P.

Alexis Galarneau faces Pablo Llamas Ruiz in the Bloomfield Hills round of 32 on hard. Pablo Llamas Ruiz holds the paper edge — ranked #116, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Galarneau A.23%
Llamas Ruiz P.77%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Llamas Ruiz P. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
5.7
Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
4.0Hard Elo 1548
Surface ELO
6.0+82 Hard Elo edge
3.0Overall Elo 1593
ELO gap
7.0Overall Elo 1757
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
5.05 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
6.56 of last 10 on hard
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 2
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

34 vs 34 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Clear edge
60%
73%
1st serve points won·Even
68%
69%
2nd serve points won·Even
50%
50%
Service points won·Even
61%
64%
Return points won·Even
40%
42%
Break points saved·Even
57%
60%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.9
2.1
Double faults / match·Dominant
4.9
1.0

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 34). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Galarneau A.serving71% hold

wins 59% of points on serve vs Llamas Ruiz P.

Llamas Ruiz P.serving80% hold

wins 63% of points on serve vs Galarneau A.

Serve advantage — Llamas Ruiz P.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
28
63
Break points saved·Slight edge
79
88
Break points won·Clear edge
16
39
Deciding sets·Dominant
22
79
Tiebreaks·Slight edge
61
72

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
61
100

Galarneau A.: 3 days rest · 3 matches, 73 games (7d) · Llamas Ruiz P.: 20 days rest. Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
28°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 36%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw