Thomas Faurel vs Daniel Rincon

Zug · CHALLENGER · Round of 32

FRA

Thomas Faurel

#319ATP

1459ELO

1424Clay ELO

20 yrs

Last 10

LWLLLWLWLW

—

Sets

Monday, 20 July 2026 · 14:30

clay

TOPCAR COURT 2 · 3rd on

ESP

Daniel Rincon

#205ATP

1522ELO

1469Clay ELO

23 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed

Last 10

LWWWLWWWLW

Faurel T.

Rincon D.

Thomas Faurel faces Daniel Rincon in the Zug round of 32 on clay. Daniel Rincon holds the paper edge — ranked #205, a roughly 50-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC

Faurel T.41%

Rincon D.59%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Rincon D. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Freshness: Thomas Faurel comes in with 6 days of rest and 73 games in 14d, vs Daniel Rincon's 8 and 102.
Surface form: Thomas Faurel 4 of 10, Daniel Rincon 7 of 10 on clay recently — Daniel Rincon the sharper of late.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Faurel T.

5.5

Slight disadvantageUmpiry Score

Rincon D.

6.6

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Form & Matchup

4.4Clay Elo 1424

Surface ELO

5.6+45 Clay Elo edge

4.2Overall Elo 1459

ELO gap

5.8Overall Elo 1522

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

3.64 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

6.87 of last 10 on clay

0.0

Win streak

0.0

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

15 vs 15 matches

Statistics

This season

Faurel T.Rincon D.

1st serve in·Slight edge

65%

59%

1st serve points won·Even

63%

64%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

54%

46%

Service points won·Even

60%

56%

Return points won·Even

40%

41%

Break points saved·Even

56%

53%

Aces / match·Even

2.3

2.8

Double faults / match·Slight edge

1.5

1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (15 vs 15). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Faurel T.serving65% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Rincon D.

Rincon D.serving58% hold

wins 53% of points on serve vs Faurel T.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Faurel T.Rincon D.

Freshness·Even

Faurel T.: 6 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d) · Rincon D.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

22°CMainly clear

Wind 8 km/hHumidity 48%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Thomas Faurel vs Daniel Rincon — Zug Round of 32