Moez Echargui vs Lloyd HarrisBloomfield Hills Round of 32

Bloomfield Hills · CHALLENGER · Round of 32
#151ATP
1416ELO
1408Hard ELO
$171kYTD
$469kCAREER
33 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLWWLLLLLL
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 2 · 3rd on
#187ATP
1665ELO
1640Hard ELO
$130kYTD
$4.7MCAREER
29 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LLLWLLWWLL
Echargui M.
vs
Harris L.

Moez Echargui faces Lloyd Harris in the Bloomfield Hills round of 32 on hard. Moez Echargui holds the paper edge — ranked #151.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 06:50 UTC
Echargui M.10%
Harris L.90%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Harris L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

  • Under pressure: Lloyd Harris has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 39 vs Moez Echargui's 4).
  • Fatigue load: Moez Echargui carries the heavier recent load — 1 three-setter to 0 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.5
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.1Hard Elo 1408
Surface ELO
7.9+232 Hard Elo edge
1.9Overall Elo 1416
ELO gap
8.1Overall Elo 1665
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.62 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
7.27 of last 10 on hard
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
7.0Grass → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

23 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
67%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
68%
75%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Slight edge
61%
67%
Return points won·Even
34%
38%
Break points saved·Slight edge
56%
67%
Aces / match·Dominant
4.3
9.2
Double faults / match·Slight edge
1.9
1.2

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Echargui M.serving78% hold

wins 62% of points on serve vs Harris L.

Harris L.serving92% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Echargui M.

Serve advantage — Harris L.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
4
39
Break points saved·Dominant
48
88
Break points won·Even
11
11
Deciding sets·Dominant
4
88
Tiebreaks·Dominant
42
7

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
88

Echargui M.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 36 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
27°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 38%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw