Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Marco TrungellitiKitzbuhel Round of 32

Kitzbuhel · ATP · Round of 32
#45ATP
1790ELO
1762Clay ELO
$779kYTD
$2.4MCAREER
24 yrs · 183 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LWWWLLWWLW
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
clay
#99ATP
1627ELO
1621Clay ELO
$400kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
36 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLLLWLWLW
Cerundolo J.
vs
Trungelliti M.

Juan Manuel Cerundolo faces Marco Trungelliti in the Kitzbuhel round of 32 on clay. Juan Manuel Cerundolo holds the paper edge — ranked #45, a roughly 140-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC
Cerundolo J.76%
Trungelliti M.24%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Cerundolo J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.9
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
5.4
Clear underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.8+141 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
3.2Clay Elo 1621
7.0Overall Elo 1790
ELO gap
3.0Overall Elo 1627
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
7.58 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
5.66 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
0.04 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

30 vs 29 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
58%
63%
1st serve points won·Even
69%
73%
2nd serve points won·Even
53%
49%
Service points won·Even
62%
64%
Return points won·Even
39%
38%
Break points saved·Even
63%
66%
Aces / match·Even
4.0
4.6
Double faults / match·Clear edge
2.3
3.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (30 vs 29). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Cerundolo J.serving74% hold

wins 60% of points on serve vs Trungelliti M.

Trungelliti M.serving76% hold

wins 61% of points on serve vs Cerundolo J.

Even serve battle

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
59
27
Break points saved·Slight edge
81
75
Break points won·Dominant
20
48
Deciding sets·Dominant
94
43
Tiebreaks·Dominant
90
5

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
53
84

Cerundolo J.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 88 games (7d) · Trungelliti M.: 3 days rest · 2 matches, 39 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Mediumbalanced pace
SlowFast
Weather forecast
18°COvercast
Wind 6 km/hHumidity 74%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw