Vilius Gaubas vs Pablo Carreno Busta — Estoril Round of 32
LTUALT
Gaubas V.
Vilius Gaubas faces Pablo Carreno Busta in the Estoril round of 32 on clay. Pablo Carreno Busta holds the paper edge — ranked #65, a roughly 230-point clay Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Carreno Busta P. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Vilius Gaubas 73 games in 14 days, Pablo Carreno Busta 51.
- Surface form: Vilius Gaubas 1 of 6, Pablo Carreno Busta 4 of 6 on clay recently — Pablo Carreno Busta the sharper of late.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (31 vs 31). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadGaubas V.: 6 days rest · 1 match, 25 games (7d) · Carreno Busta P.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 51 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.