Sebastian Baez vs Miomir Kecmanovic — Kitzbuhel Round of 32
Baez S.
Sebastian Baez faces Miomir Kecmanovic in the Kitzbuhel round of 32 on clay. Miomir Kecmanovic is the paper favourite — leading the head-to-head 3–0, a roughly 20-point clay Elo advantage — but Sebastian Baez arrives in form, winning 4 of their last 5 on clay to Miomir Kecmanovic's 3.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 16:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Toss-up · Too close to call
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Under pressure: Sebastian Baez has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 67 vs Miomir Kecmanovic's 20).
- Serve & return: Serve-return mismatch: Miomir Kecmanovic grades 32 on serve, Sebastian Baez 60 on return.
- Head-to-head: Miomir Kecmanovic leads the head-to-head 3–0, 0–1 on clay. Last met at Roland Garros 2025.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (34 vs 26). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadBaez S.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 60 games (7d) · Kecmanovic M.: 2 days rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
0–3| Date | Tournament | Round | Surface | Winner | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | R128 | clay | Miomir Kecmanovic | 6-7 6-7 6-4 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-10-28 | Paris Masters | R64 | hard | Miomir Kecmanovic | 6-4 6-7 7-5 |
| 2024-06-24 | Eastbourne | R16 | grass | Miomir Kecmanovic | 6-3 6-2 |