Frederico Ferreira Silva vs Luca Van AsscheEstoril Round of 32

Estoril · ATP · Round of 32
#233ATP
1468ELO
1404Clay ELO
31 yrs · 178 cm · Left-handed
Last 10
LLLWLLWLLL
Sets
Monday, 20 July 2026 ·
clay
#86ATP
1701ELO
1639Clay ELO
$411kYTD
$2.6MCAREER
22 yrs · 178 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
LWLWWWWWLW
Ferreira Silva F.
vs
Van Assche L.

Frederico Ferreira Silva faces Luca Van Assche in the Estoril round of 32 on clay. Luca Van Assche holds the paper edge — ranked #86, a roughly 230-point clay Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC
Ferreira Silva F.19%
Van Assche L.81%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Van Assche L. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.5
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
7.2
Strong advantageUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
2.1Clay Elo 1404
Surface ELO
7.9+234 Clay Elo edge
2.1Overall Elo 1468
ELO gap
7.9Overall Elo 1701
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
2.02 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
7.17 of last 10 on clay
0.0Lost last 3
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

32 vs 36 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
66%
62%
1st serve points won·Even
65%
68%
2nd serve points won·Even
51%
52%
Service points won·Even
60%
62%
Return points won·Even
41%
41%
Break points saved·Even
60%
64%
Aces / match·Clear edge
1.4
2.9
Double faults / match·Slight edge
2.1
2.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (32 vs 36). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Ferreira Silva F.serving64% hold

wins 56% of points on serve vs Van Assche L.

Van Assche L.serving68% hold

wins 58% of points on serve vs Ferreira Silva F.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
34
15
Break points saved·Even
80
83
Break points won·Clear edge
26
4
Deciding sets·Dominant
56
11
Tiebreaks·Dominant
6
69

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Clear edge
92
78

Ferreira Silva F.: 7 days rest · 1 match, 18 games (7d) · Van Assche L.: 4 days rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Slowlow bounce, long rallies
SlowFast
Weather forecast
22°CPartly cloudy
Wind 13 km/hHumidity 69%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw