Mark Lajal vs Bu Yunchaokete — Lincoln Semi-final
EST5
Lajal M.
Mark Lajal faces Bu Yunchaokete in the Lincoln semi-final on hard. Bu Yunchaokete holds the paper edge — ranked #109, a roughly 90-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Yunchaokete B. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Mark Lajal 94 games in 14 days, Bu Yunchaokete 123.
- Last match: Bu Yunchaokete dropped the opening set before beating Colton Smith 6–7 6–3 6–4.
- Win streak: Both arrive on three-match winning runs.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadLajal M.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 66 games (7d) · Yunchaokete B.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 88 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.