Federico Cina vs Lorenzo Giustino — Kitzbuhel Qualifying Final
ITA4
ITA6
Cina F.Federico Cina faces Lorenzo Giustino in the Kitzbuhel qualifying final on clay. Federico Cina is the paper favourite — ranked #184, a roughly 240-point clay Elo advantage — but Lorenzo Giustino arrives in form, winning 5 of their last 8 on clay to Federico Cina's 4.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 17:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Strong favourite · Cina F. heavily favoured
Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Workload contrast: Federico Cina 102 games in 14 days, Lorenzo Giustino 162.
- Under pressure: Federico Cina has the edge on pressure points (Clutch Rating 42 vs Lorenzo Giustino's 1).
- Last match: Lorenzo Giustino dropped just 6 games past Nico Hipfl.
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (23 vs 23). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadCina F.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 71 games (7d) · Giustino L.: 4 days rest · 3 matches, 75 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.