Luca Castelnuovo vs Alexander VasilevSegovia Qualifying Semi-final

Segovia · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#461ATP
1176ELO
1166Hard ELO
29 yrs · 185 cm · Left-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
WWLLLWLLLW
0 — 2
Sets
Sunday, 19 July 2026 ·
hard
PISTA 1 · 3rd on
#623ATP
1443ELO
1331Hard ELO
19 yrs
Last 10 · pre-match
WLLWWLLLWL
Castelnuovo L.
4-6 2-6
Vasilev A.
Castelnuovo L.
420
Vasilev A.
662

Alexander Vasilev advanced to the Segovia semifinals with a 6-4, 6-2 win over Luca Castelnuovo. Vasilev hit 5 aces and won 79% of his first-serve points, converting 50% of his break points. Castelnuovo converted all 3 of his break points but was only able to break Vasilev once.

Generated automatically from Umpiry match data.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
57%
62%
1st serve points won·Clear edge
76%
58%
2nd serve points won·Clear edge
51%
39%
Service points won·Clear edge
65%
51%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
41%
Break points saved·Slight edge
53%
58%
Aces / match·Clear edge
6.2
3.3
Double faults / match·Dominant
2.8
6.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (9 vs 4). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 11:50 UTC
Castelnuovo L.16%
Vasilev A.84%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Vasilev A. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
4.6
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry ScorePartial · surface data limited
Form & Matchup
2.9Hard Elo 1166
Surface ELO
7.1+166 Hard Elo edge
1.7Overall Elo 1176
ELO gap
8.3Overall Elo 1443
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
1.62 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
0.0Lost last 2
Win streak
0.0
Fatigue & Travel
7.01 three-setter in 14 days
3-set count
Surface transition
6.0Clay → Hard
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Dominant
66
97

Castelnuovo L.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 48 games (7d) · Vasilev A.: 9 days rest · 1 match (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
32°CMainly clear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 12%

Draw