Juan Pablo Varillas vs Gabi Adrian BoitanZug Qualifying Semi-final

Zug · CHALLENGER · Qualifying Semi-final
#279ATP
1440ELO
1431Clay ELO
30 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWWLWLLLL
2 — 1
Sets
Sunday, 19 July 2026 ·
clay
JEGO COURT 1 · 1st on
#434ATP
1370ELO
1352Clay ELO
27 yrs · 185 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWLLLLWW
Varillas J.
6-4 6-7 6-3
Adrian Boitan G.
Varillas J.
66462
Adrian Boitan G.
47731

Juan Pablo Varillas defeated Gabi Adrian Boitan in the semifinals of the Zug tournament on clay. The match ended with a score of 6-4, 6-7, 6-3 in favor of Varillas. Varillas hit 15 aces and committed no double faults, while Boitan had 7 aces and 6 double faults; Varillas converted 38% of break points and broke Boitan's serve three times, compared to Boitan's one service break.

Key context

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Even
57%
60%
1st serve points won·Even
66%
70%
2nd serve points won·Slight edge
51%
42%
Service points won·Even
60%
59%
Return points won·Even
42%
39%
Break points saved·Even
59%
61%
Aces / match·Slight edge
2.7
3.6
Double faults / match·Dominant
1.5
6.5

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (28 vs 12). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 07:50 UTC
Varillas J.68%
Adrian Boitan G.32%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Clear favourite · Varillas J. clearly ahead, but no certainty

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.2
Even matchUmpiry Score
5.0
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
6.0+79 Clay Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.0Clay Elo 1352
5.9Overall Elo 1440
ELO gap
4.1Overall Elo 1370
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
4.74 of last 10 on clay
Surface form
3.84 of last 10 on clay
0.0
Win streak
0.0Lost last 3
Fatigue & Travel
0.03 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·
82

Varillas J.: 8 days rest · 4 matches (14d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather
18°CPartly cloudy
Wind 2 km/hHumidity 68%

Draw