Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa

Iasi · WTA · Final

EGY

Mayar Sherif

#97WTA

1685ELO

1663Clay ELO

30 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWWWWWL

—

Sets

Sunday, 19 July 2026 · 17:30

clay

ESP

Paula Badosa

#115WTA

1780ELO

1684Clay ELO

28 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWWWWWL

Sherif M.

Badosa P.

Mayar Sherif faces Paula Badosa in the Iasi final on clay. Paula Badosa holds the paper edge — leading the head-to-head 1–0, a roughly 20-point clay Elo advantage. Recent clay form is closely matched.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 05:50 UTC

Sherif M.36%

Badosa P.64%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Badosa P. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 65% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Under pressure: In the tight moments, Paula Badosa has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 87 vs 7).
Last match: Paula Badosa dropped the opening set before beating Tamara Zidansek 3–6 7–5 7–6.
Last match: Mayar Sherif dropped just 4 games past Oleksandra Oliynykova.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Sherif M.

6.0

Even matchUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Badosa P.

6.3

Marginal edgeUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

4.7Clay Elo 1663

Surface ELO

5.3+22 Clay Elo edge

3.8Overall Elo 1685

ELO gap

6.2Overall Elo 1780

5.0First meeting on clay

H2H

5.0First meeting on clay

10.010 of last 10 on clay

Surface form

9.49 of last 10 on clay

10.09-match win streak

Win streak

10.09-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

22 vs 19 matches

Statistics

This season

Sherif M.Badosa P.

1st serve in·Clear edge

78%

56%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

58%

69%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

47%

39%

Service points won·Even

56%

Return points won·Even

46%

43%

Break points saved·Even

54%

53%

Aces / match·Dominant

0.9

4.8

Double faults / match·Dominant

1.9

7.6

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (22 vs 19). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Sherif M.serving66% hold

wins 57% of points on serve vs Badosa P.

Badosa P.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Sherif M.

Baseline battle — serve is shaky, expect plenty of breaks

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure

Sherif M.Badosa P.

Clutch Rating·Dominant

Break points saved·Dominant

Break points won·Dominant

Deciding sets·Dominant

Tiebreaks·Clear edge

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load

Sherif M.Badosa P.

Freshness·Slight edge

Sherif M.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 116 games (7d) · Badosa P.: 1 day rest · 4 matches, 103 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Slowlow bounce, long rallies

SlowFast

Weather forecast

26°CThunderstorm

Wind 15 km/hHumidity 85%

Head to head

0–1

Date	Tournament	Round	Surface	Winner	Score
2023-04-03	Charleston	R64	clay	Paula Badosa	6-3 6-1

Mayar Sherif vs Paula Badosa — Iasi Final

Win Probability

Key context

Umpiry Score

Statistics

Serve vs return

Clutch

Freshness

Conditions

Head to head

Draw