Chris Rodesch vs Akira SantillanPozoblanco Semi-final

Pozoblanco · CHALLENGER · Semi-final
#191ATP
1622ELO
1623Hard ELO
$163kYTD
$424kCAREER
25 yrs · 198 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWLLLLW
Sets
Saturday, 18 July 2026 ·
hard
PISTA FABIAN DORADO · 2nd on
#301ATP
1367ELO
1343Hard ELO
29 yrs · 180 cm · Right-handed
Last 10
WWWLWWLLLL
Rodesch C.
vs
Santillan A.

Chris Rodesch faces Akira Santillan in the Pozoblanco semi-final on hard. Chris Rodesch holds the paper edge — ranked #191, a roughly 280-point hard Elo advantage.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC
Rodesch C.86%
Santillan A.14%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Rodesch C. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.4
Marginal edgeUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
4.3
Heavy underdogUmpiry Score
  • Back-to-back day (−0.5)
Form & Matchup
8.5+281 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
1.5Hard Elo 1342
8.2Overall Elo 1622
ELO gap
1.8Overall Elo 1367
5.0No prior meetings
H2H
5.0No prior meetings
6.76 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
4.84 of last 10 on hard
7.03-match win streak
Win streak
7.03-match win streak
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

27 vs 10 matches

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
67%
61%
1st serve points won·Even
74%
72%
2nd serve points won·Even
52%
50%
Service points won·Even
67%
63%
Return points won·Even
38%
34%
Break points saved·Slight edge
65%
56%
Aces / match·Slight edge
6.1
5.4
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.0
4.3

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 10). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season
Rodesch C.serving91% hold

wins 71% of points on serve vs Santillan A.

Santillan A.serving81% hold

wins 64% of points on serve vs Rodesch C.

Serve advantage — Rodesch C.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Dominant
52
0
Break points saved·Dominant
87
32
Break points won·Slight edge
5
16
Deciding sets·Dominant
81
14
Tiebreaks·Dominant
74
11

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Slight edge
57
64

Rodesch C.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 90 games (7d) · Santillan A.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 67 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-fastrewards aggression
SlowFast
Weather forecast
34°COvercast
Wind 14 km/hHumidity 15%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Draw