Mark Lajal vs Rio NoguchiLincoln Quarter-final

Lincoln · CHALLENGER · Quarter-final
#159ATP
1589ELO
1556Hard ELO
$97kYTD
$654kCAREER
23 yrs · 191 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWWLWWWWLW
2 — 0
Sets
Saturday, 18 July 2026 ·
hard
COURT 7 · 1st on
#213ATP
1532ELO
1513Hard ELO
27 yrs · 168 cm · Right-handed
Last 10 · pre-match
LWLWWWWLLL
Lajal M.
6-4 6-4
Noguchi R.
Lajal M.
662
Noguchi R.
440

Mark Lajal advanced to the semifinals of the Lincoln tournament, defeating Rio Noguchi in the quarterfinals. Lajal won the match in straight sets, 6-4, 6-4, on hard courts.

Key context

  • Match story: Mark Lajal edged a tight contest from start to finish — 6–4 6–4.

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.

Statistics

This season
1st serve in·Slight edge
60%
68%
1st serve points won·Slight edge
74%
65%
2nd serve points won·Even
48%
48%
Service points won·Even
64%
60%
Return points won·Slight edge
36%
43%
Break points saved·Clear edge
70%
57%
Aces / match·Dominant
6.4
1.0
Double faults / match·Clear edge
3.3
1.9

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (19 vs 28). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Clutch

Under pressure
Clutch Rating·Clear edge
43
23
Break points saved·Dominant
89
25
Break points won·Clear edge
13
26
Deciding sets·Dominant
42
82
Tiebreaks·Dominant
81
4

Performance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 22:50 UTC
Lajal M.65%
Noguchi R.35%
Toss-up
50–58%
Slight edge
58–67%
Clear favourite
67–80%
Strong favourite
80%+

Slight edge · Lajal M. narrowly ahead

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match
6.7
Slight advantageUmpiry Score
6.1
Even matchUmpiry Score
Form & Matchup
5.5+44 Hard Elo edge
Surface ELO
4.5Hard Elo 1512
5.7Overall Elo 1588
ELO gap
4.3Overall Elo 1532
6.4Leads 2–1 on hard
H2H
3.6Trails 1–2 on hard
7.27 of last 10 on hard
Surface form
5.45 of last 10 on hard
Fatigue & Travel
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
3-set count
4.02 three-setters in 14 days
Context
5.0Didn't play here last year
Defending pts
5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

Freshness

Recent load
Freshness·Even
75
77

Lajal M.: 5 days rest · 3 matches, 83 games (7d) · Noguchi R.: 1 day rest · 1 match, 30 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed
Medium-slowfavours grinders
SlowFast
Weather
34°CClear
Wind 17 km/hHumidity 40%

Draw