Tiago Pereira vs Ilya Ivashka — Pozoblanco Semi-final

Pozoblanco · CHALLENGER · Semi-final

POR

Tiago Pereira

#379ATP

1179ELO

1142Hard ELO

22 yrs · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWLWLWLLL

—

Sets

Saturday, 18 July 2026 · 19:00

hard

PISTA FABIAN DORADO · 1st on

BLRQ

Ilya Ivashka

#554ATP

1538ELO

1509Hard ELO

32 yrs · 193 cm · Right-handed

Last 10

WWWWWLWWWW

Pereira T.

Ivashka I.

Tiago Pereira faces Ilya Ivashka in the Pozoblanco semi-final on hard. Tiago Pereira is the paper favourite — ranked #379 — but Ilya Ivashka arrives in form, winning 6 of their last 7 on hard to Tiago Pereira's 5.

Win Probability

Pre-match · updated 14:50 UTC

Pereira T.12%

Ivashka I.88%

Toss-up
50–58%

Slight edge
58–67%

Clear favourite
67–80%

Strong favourite
80%+

Strong favourite · Ivashka I. heavily favoured

Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.

Key context

Last match: Ilya Ivashka dropped the opening set before beating Dan Added 6–7 6–1 6–3.
Last match: Tiago Pereira edged Alejo Sanchez Quilez in two tight sets (6–4 7–6).
Fatigue load: Tiago Pereira carries the heavier recent load — 2 three-setters to 1 in the past fortnight.

Umpiry Score

Pre-match

Pereira T.

4.0

Heavy underdogUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Ivashka I.

7.0

Strong advantageUmpiry Score

Back-to-back day (−0.5)

Form & Matchup

0.4Hard Elo 1142

Surface ELO

9.6+367 Hard Elo edge

0.5Overall Elo 1179

ELO gap

9.5Overall Elo 1538

5.0No prior meetings

H2H

5.0No prior meetings

4.23 of last 10 on hard

Surface form

9.19 of last 10 on hard

7.03-match win streak

Win streak

9.05-match win streak

Fatigue & Travel

4.02 three-setters in 14 days

3-set count

7.01 three-setter in 14 days

Context

5.0Didn't play here last year

Defending pts

5.0Didn't play here last year

The Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.

14 vs 20 matches

Statistics

This season

Pereira T.Ivashka I.

1st serve in·Even

62%

65%

1st serve points won·Slight edge

64%

71%

2nd serve points won·Slight edge

40%

49%

Service points won·Slight edge

55%

63%

Return points won·Slight edge

36%

42%

Break points saved·Clear edge

47%

61%

Aces / match·Clear edge

2.0

4.2

Double faults / match·Clear edge

1.6

2.7

Averages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (14 vs 20). ATP, WTA & Challenger.

Serve vs return

This season

Pereira T.serving59% hold

wins 54% of points on serve vs Ivashka I.

Ivashka I.serving84% hold

wins 66% of points on serve vs Pereira T.

Serve advantage — Ivashka I.

Each player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About

Freshness

Recent load

Pereira T.Ivashka I.

Freshness·Even

Pereira T.: 1 day rest · 3 matches, 89 games (7d) · Ivashka I.: 1 day rest · 5 matches, 93 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About

Conditions

Court speed

Medium-fastrewards aggression

SlowFast

Weather forecast

35°COvercast

Wind 11 km/hHumidity 20%

Head to head

No previous meetings on record.