Colton Smith vs Bu Yunchaokete — Lincoln Quarter-final
Smith C.
Colton Smith faces Bu Yunchaokete in the Lincoln quarter-final on hard. Bu Yunchaokete holds the paper edge — ranked #109, a roughly 80-point hard Elo advantage.
Win Probability
Pre-match · updated 15:50 UTC50–58%
58–67%
67–80%
80%+
Clear favourite · Yunchaokete B. clearly ahead, but no certainty
Calibrated model · 63% favourite accuracy (2025–26, out-of-sample). Probability is a statistical estimate, not a certainty. How it works.
Key context
- Freshness: Colton Smith comes in with 1 days of rest and 53 games in 14d, vs Bu Yunchaokete's 1 and 91.
- Under pressure: In the tight moments, Colton Smith has rated higher under pressure (Clutch Rating 62 vs 36).
Umpiry Score
Pre-matchThe Umpiry Score combines match-context factors — matchup, form, fatigue, travel and motivation — into a single 0–10 score, updated daily. Read how it works.
Statistics
This seasonAverages over each player's completed matches in the selected window (27 vs 25). ATP, WTA & Challenger.
Serve vs return
This seasonEach player's serve crossed against the other's return, converted to expected hold of serve. Recent completed matches, ATP, WTA & Challenger. About
Clutch
Under pressurePerformance in the biggest moments — break points, deciding sets and tiebreaks (0–100, higher is better). About
Freshness
Recent loadSmith C.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 53 games (7d) · Yunchaokete B.: 1 day rest · 2 matches, 56 games (7d). Higher means fresher. About
Conditions
Head to head
No previous meetings on record.